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Policy

From Rocket to Red Tape: How to Fall Behind in Transport Innovation

AI is getting a lot of attention, and there are a lot of opportunities and risks associated with the various technologies that fall under the AI umbrella. Therefore, it was good to see the UK government publish its Transport AI Action Plan.

Key Takeaways

• The plan sets out how the Department for Transport (DfT) will work with the transport sector to exploit the opportunities from AI while managing potential risks.
• The vision is "Responsible AI embedded in a resilient transport system delivering cheaper, cleaner, and safer journeys for all."
• DfT and the transport sector will work together to:
  • Adopt AI responsibly to deliver better transport for all
  • Maximise the economic benefit from AI applications in transport, whilst reducing transport’s environmental impacts
  • Secure the UK position at the forefront of transport-related AI applications
  • Utilise AI to enhance the quality, efficiency, and effectiveness of DfT
• The plan includes 23 actions (note: I have simplified these):
  1. Work with the private sector to implement AI.
  2. Remove barriers to AI adoption.
  3. Deliver measures that would enable trials and commercial pilots to take place in 2026.
  4. Give regulators the right capabilities.
  5. Use AI for road network management.
  6. Make it easy to procure AI.
  7. Create AI apprenticeships.
  8. Train DfT staff in AI.
  9. Create a Transport AI Community of Practice.
  10. Consult the transport sector on AI.
  11. Create a data action plan.
  12. Make it easy for AI innovators to apply their skills in transport.
  13. Showcase innovative uses of AI.
  14. Use AI to improve transport security and resilience.
  15. Use AI to reduce transport's environmental impact.
  16. Develop a roadmap for AI to interact with the physical world.
  17. Use AI to make DfT more efficient.
  18. Integrate AI into major projects.
  19. Understand AI risks and mitigations
  20. Utilise geospatial foundation models.
  21. Provide grants to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) for AI innovations.
  22. Create ambition statements on what they want AI to achieve.
  23. Undertake social and behavioural research around AI in transport

Comment

It is positive that the UK government is considering AI in transport in a structured way. Every jurisdiction should be doing this.

It is also good to see the ambition for commercial pilots next year.

However:

1. The objectives are not SMART. There is no timetable for delivery, nor are they measurable or specific.
2. The actions appear as a hodgepodge of ideas aimed at placating every stakeholder. Where is the prioritisation?
3. It is mainly an action plan to prepare for AI and emphasises the need for caution. Meanwhile, an increasing number of jurisdictions are deploying AI-enabled solutions.
4. The automation of public transport, which can significantly reduce costs and improve services, is ignored, even though there are autonomous bus services in commercial operation without a safety driver. See here.

What next?

In my next blog, out on Thursday, I will share my view on what should be included in a Transport AI strategy.

Buses

8 Principles for Better Buses

It amazes me how many jurisdictions, even those with relatively good public transport systems, do a poor job when it comes to buses. Here is an example from Vancouver (thanks to Michal Rieback).

Outside of London, the UK's buses have been in decline over recent years. The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) has recently released a report making recommendations on how to fix that, and there are valuable lessons for jurisdictions around the world.

Key Takeaways

• The report proposes eight principles for better buses:

1. Accessible and inclusive – can everyone get the bus?
2. Connected – can you get where you need to be by bus?
3. Reliable and prioritised – can you depend on the bus for your needs?
4. Affordable and simple fares – can you afford to use the bus for your everyday journeys?
5. Attractive – do you feel comfortable using the bus?
6. Integrated – are buses integrated with other forms of transport and local priorities?
7. Sustainable – are buses playing their full role in supporting a healthy environment and clean economy?
8. Accountable – can the public shape and improve their local public transport networks?

• The report notes the cost-benefit ratio for buses, with every £1 invested in buses estimated to yield £4-£4.55 of economic benefits.
• It notes that taxi use has increased for those without a car, in line with declining bus provision, meaning car trips have replaced bus trips.
• A lot of the focus of the report is on governance of bus services, and it is heavily critical of the deregulation approach that has been the norm since the 1980s.
• It recommends that the government should devolve power to local regions and create Total Transport Authorities (TTAs): one locally, democratically controlled body responsible for integrating public, private and community transport in each place, similar to Transport for London.
• The report wants to encourage franchising and municipally owned operators.
• The report also contains some estimates for the costs of its recommendations, totalling over £20 billion over the next 5 years.

Comment

It is good to see the IPPR championing the potential of buses, and the eight principles are a good starting point (although prioritisation is needed). I agree with the recommendations on the need for locally accountable TTAs.

However, for me, the report has two interrelated weaknesses. Firstly, the UK is in a financial bind, with other priorities well ahead of buses. If anything, public transport will be lucky to maintain its existing levels of operational subsidies; significant increases look off the table.

Additionally, the report is silent on driverless buses. There are already commercial driverless bus services in operation around the world. These have the potential to dramatically reduce the costs of bus services, enabling reinvestment in better services and, at least partially, offering solutions to the financial constraints.

What next?

Are you getting the basics right on your bus services? In many jurisdictions, the priorities are frequency, reliability and journey time.

Leadership

A checklist for decision making

​This article from the Economist discussed how to improve decision-making:

• The ways in which humans can be triggered into making irrational decisions are many and varied.
• A distinguishing feature of biases is that people are unaware of them.
• It’s up to organisations to encourage better decision-making. That means asking three questions in particular:

1. What kind of decision is being taken? Is it a significant decision that's hard to reverse and requires more thought, or a decision where changing course is not too difficult and it’s better to move quickly, even if mistakes are made? A hard to reverse decision in transport is over which mode(s) to choose to solve a problem. A more reversible decision might be a slight adjustment to the timing of traffic lights.
2. Who is taking the decision? Disagreements can quickly lead to an impasse unless someone has the authority to make the choice. Use formal frameworks designed to specify decision-making roles (e.g. RAPID or RACI). Note: It is tempting for senior leaders to override a framework and make decisions anyway. I recall being affected by an impasse over a rail fleet strategy, as it was unclear who the decision-maker was.
3. How should we reach a decision? Should it follow a codified process? Should there be structured ways to gather opposing views? In transport, there may be significant disagreements over modal choices, and it would be beneficial to have a structured process for gathering views.

I would add two other considerations.

Firstly, there is additional complexity when a political decision-maker is involved, and it would be helpful to discuss decision-making processes with them to gain their buy-in.

Secondly, decisions around innovation, i.e., those that are not anticipated, often have to pass through multiple gatekeepers in a hierarchy, with each having the power of veto, before they can even reach a decision maker. This has a stifling effect on innovation and is particularly challenging when transport agencies face numerous pressures to change, such as those arising from net-zero obligations or technological advancements.

What Next?

How good are your decision-making processes? Do your significant, hard to reverse decisions have robust decision-making processes in place?

Quick Adventures in Transport Wonderland

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Interesting articles, podcasts and papers that sent me down the transport rabbit hole this week:

• There is a tendency to focus on exhaust emissions. However, motor vehicles also have significant non-exhaust emissions. For example, 96% of Europe’s population is exposed to PM2.5 above WHO limits from non-exhaust emissions. See here.
• What factors influence the choice of a sustainable transport mode? The University of Sydney has been researching this topic.
• How has the post-COVID-19 period impacted transport in different jurisdictions? This paper examines Great Britain, Germany, the United States, Canada, and Australia.

Blog

5 Fatal Flaws in How We Think About Transport Safety

This week, my blog considered five mistakes we are making in how we think about safety in transport.

Innovation

How do you assist people who are unable to walk far in pedestrian zones?

​This 6-seater electric vehicle provides a solution.

Tool

How to Start a Bike Bus

The evidence suggests that bike buses are an effective way to encourage cycling. Here is a guide for setting up a bike bus.