The Future of Sydney's Transport: Moving Beyond More Roads
After a decade in Sydney, I will be moving to Adelaide at the end of the year for family reasons. As I prepare to leave, I've been reflecting on what this city could become and what's holding it back.
If you are in Sydney and would like to meet for coffee before I head off, please feel free to contact me at russell@transportlc.org.
Key Takeaways
- Sydney has grown to 5.6 million people by sprawling outward, building car-dependent suburbs primarily in the west, while jobs remained concentrated in the eastern part of the city.
- This pattern has created worsening congestion, entrenched transport inequality, and made much of Sydney heavily car-dependent.
- Sydney's current approach, simultaneously building more roads while investing in public transport, is contradictory and doomed to fail. You cannot build for both cars and alternatives and expect congestion to improve.
-
The city needs a different approach to transport based on ten key changes:
- Set mode shift targets with accountability: Establish clear goals for reducing car travel and require independent annual reporting to Parliament on progress.
- Stop building so many roads: Redirect funding from road expansion that generates induced demand to modes that actually reduce car dependency.
- Transform active transport investment: Increase funding from a fraction of 1% to build protected bike networks and support walking infrastructure.
- Expand and improve public transport: Enhance bus services, commit to the next rail project, build infill stations, and integrate public transport with sharing economy options.
- Reduce operating and infrastructure costs: Address excess train operating costs and lower construction costs.
- Generate revenue strategically: Implement policies like commuter parking charges that both fund improvements and reduce car dependency.
- Fix asset management: Shift from expensive emergency repairs to strategic maintenance, addressing the $3 billion road maintenance backlog.
- Use pricing to manage demand: Reform tolls, pilot pay-as-you-go registration, use fares strategically, and charge freight appropriately.
- Integrate transport and land use: Make Transit Oriented Development systematic with a continuous pipeline, not project-by-project.
- Shape autonomous vehicle impacts: Use transport mode hierarchy and road pricing to prevent AVs from inducing massive additional car travel.
- The biggest barrier is that much of the public still believes building more roads reduces congestion. The New South Wales (NSW) government must educate the public on induced demand to create political space for better investment.
- These challenges aren't unique to Sydney. Most of these recommendations apply to car-dependent cities worldwide that have grown through sprawl and are trapped in a cycle of congestion and road building.
What Next?
Which of these recommendations apply to your city?
Introduction
Sydney is caught in a familiar trap. Traffic congestion worsens year after year, yet the dominant response remains building more roads. Meanwhile, the city invests in public transport expansions that, while welcome, can't deliver their full potential when surrounded by ever-expanding car infrastructure. It's a contradiction that guarantees failure: you cannot simultaneously build for cars and build for alternatives, then expect congestion to improve.
The consequences go beyond frustrating commutes. Sydney's transport system entrenches inequality, with residents in Western suburbs bearing the brunt of car dependency, while those closer to the CBD enjoy better access to trains, buses, and walkable neighbourhoods. And as climate targets loom, the transport sector's carbon emissions remain stubbornly high.
None of this is unique to Sydney. Cities across Australia and around the world face similar challenges, having grown in similar ways: by sprawling outward, building car-dependent suburbs, and attempting to alleviate congestion with ever-wider roads. The recommendations that follow are therefore relevant far beyond Sydney's boundaries.
As Australia's largest and most globally connected city, with a population approaching 6 million, Sydney should be leading the way in demonstrating what modern, sustainable urban transport looks like. Instead, it remains addicted to an approach that stopped working decades ago.
This post outlines ten changes Sydney needs to make to build a transport system worthy of a world-class city. Some have appeared in various government strategies over the years. The challenge, as always, isn't knowing what to do; it's finding the political pathway actually to do it.
The Sydney Context
Sydney's transport challenges are rooted in how the city has grown. In 1970, the population stood at 2.9 million. By the 2000 Olympics, it had reached 4.1 million. Today, it's approximately 5.6 million, with projections suggesting it will exceed 6 million by the early 2030s.
That's nearly a doubling of the population in just over 50 years. Yet Sydney remains, by global standards, a low-density city. The mathematics of this should raise immediate questions: how does a city grow so dramatically without densifying?
The answer is sprawl. Sydney has expanded relentlessly outward, primarily to the west, adding suburb after car-dependent suburb. These new communities were built around the assumption that residents would drive, because they would have no other realistic choice. Jobs, meanwhile, remained concentrated in the eastern CBD and a handful of other employment centres, creating long, car-dependent commutes for hundreds of thousands of people.
The result is a city of stark transport inequality. Close to the CBD, residents enjoy walkable streets, frequent trains, and genuine transport choices. Travel west, and car dependency becomes the norm. While Sydney's average shows 11% of trips by public transport and nearly 20% by active transport, these figures mask enormous variation. In Western suburbs, driving isn't a preference; it's often the only viable option.
Sydney does have significant transport infrastructure. Its rail network, which first opened in 1855, now has approximately 300 stations. The past decade has seen substantial investment, most notably the Sydney Metro, with additional lines currently under construction. The city also operates an extensive bus network; however, bus priority remains inconsistent, and a recent government review highlighted the urgent need for service improvements.
Sydney has also earned the distinction of being Australia's (and possibly the world’s) tolling capital, with numerous toll roads crisscrossing the metropolitan area. Yet despite, or perhaps because of, this extensive road infrastructure, congestion continues to worsen.
This is the context in which Sydney must now make critical decisions about its transport future. A growing population, entrenched car dependency, geographic inequality, and the need to reduce carbon emissions all demand a fundamentally different approach. The question is whether the city can change direction.
Where next for Sydney's Transport System?
Sydney doesn't lack for transport strategies. The problem isn't vision, it's execution. Time and again, strategies gather dust while the city continues building what it's always built: more roads.
What follows are ten recommendations for Sydney's transport future. None are particularly radical. Many have appeared, in some form, in official documents.
This list is not comprehensive, and I do not have the space in this blog to go into detail about how I think they should be progressed. Future blogs will elaborate. In particular, I have not explicitly covered electric vehicles. There are several reasons for this, including federal jurisdiction, the progress of road user charging for EVs, and the problems that EVs cause, such as induced demand.
1. Set Clear Mode Shift Targets And Hold Government Accountable
Sydney needs explicit targets for reducing the share of car travel, with concrete timelines and accountability. London provides a useful model: 80% of all trips by walking, cycling, or public transport by 2041, with a 27% reduction in traffic volumes by 2030. Crucially, London reports progress regularly and publicly.
Sydney should adopt equivalent targets, but with a mechanism that other jurisdictions have rarely used: mandatory annual reporting to Parliament by an independent body such as the NSW Auditor-General. This report should assess not just progress against targets, but whether current projects and funding allocations are sufficient to achieve them. Without this accountability, targets become aspirational rhetoric rather than commitments.
2. Stop Building So Many Roads
Every additional lane, every new motorway, generates more traffic through induced demand. Yet billions continue flowing into road expansion that will, inevitably, create the very congestion it claims to solve.
The waste isn't just financial. Money spent expanding roads is money not spent on alternatives that could actually reduce car dependency. However, here's the political challenge: most of the public still believes that building more roads reduces congestion. Until that changes, governments will struggle to justify doing less.
The NSW Government should launch a sustained public education campaign on induced demand. Not a one-off advertisement, but an ongoing effort to shift public understanding. Hopefully, this will give the NSW government the political space to invest differently.
3. Transform Active Transport Funding
Currently, active transport receives a fraction of 1% of NSW's transport budget. The result is predictable: Sydney's cycling and walking infrastructure remains inadequate across most of the city.
The money saved from reduced road building should be used to increase the active transport budget substantially. Priority should go to building a protected, connected bike network, the kind where parents would feel comfortable letting their children ride. But funding should also support 30km/h zones, School Streets programs, walking and cycling buses, and incentives for e-bike adoption, all of which research shows can significantly reduce car journeys.
4. Expand and Improve Public Transport
A recent government-commissioned review of Sydney's bus services documented both their potential and their shortcomings. Improvements must include better bus stops, more frequent services, and genuine bus priority, not the sporadic priority that currently exists.
For rail, the challenge is maintaining momentum. The last major rail announcement came in 2018 with the new airport connection. While current projects won't be completed until the early 2030s, the government needs to commit soon to the next rail line or extension.
The government has committed to one infill station at Woollahra. It should identify additional opportunities for infill stations, rezone surrounding areas for density, and use value capture mechanisms to fund at least part of the construction costs.
Parramatta Road exemplifies Sydney's transport-planning disconnect. The government plans to add 10,000 homes along this classic stroad corridor. Those residents will need a high-quality transport option, almost certainly light rail, not just another bus route competing with traffic.
Finally, public transport alone rarely convinces people to abandon their cars. Sydney needs a comprehensive approach that integrates public transport with car share, bike share, and scooter share - complementary elements of a modern mobility system. The government should integrate these services to support mode shift and integrate seamlessly with public transport.
5. Cut Operating and Infrastructure Costs
Sydney's train network is costly to operate. Some estimates suggest it costs an additional $1 billion annually compared to benchmarks. Even if the actual figure is half that, it represents an enormous opportunity: money currently absorbed by inefficiency that could be used to fund additional services.
Similarly, Sydney has become notoriously expensive for infrastructure construction. Project after project comes in above international benchmarks. Addressing this, through better procurement, reduced regulatory burden, and improved project delivery, would allow the same budget to deliver far more infrastructure.
Every dollar wasted on inflated operating or construction costs is a dollar not available for expanding services or building new infrastructure.
6. Generate Revenue While Improving the System
Better transport services require more funding. The solution isn't just bigger budgets; it's implementing policies that both generate revenue and improve the transport system.
Commuter parking at train stations is a prime example. Currently free in most locations, it encourages driving to stations, requires expensive car parks, and provides no revenue for alternative transport investment. Charging for parking would reduce car use, generate funds for better bus connections and bike facilities, and reduce the need for future parking infrastructure.
7. Strategic Asset Management
NSW's road maintenance backlog is estimated to exceed $3 billion. Sydney Trains keeps experiencing breakdowns. These aren't random failures; they reflect immature asset management practices across the transport system.
The economics are straightforward: emergency repairs cost 3 to 9 times more than planned maintenance. Yet Sydney continues operating in reactive mode, addressing too many failures as they occur rather than preventing them strategically.
Mature asset management delivers better reliability at lower long-term cost. It shifts spending from expensive emergency response to strategic investment. Given Sydney's transport reliability problems, this should be a priority.
8. Use Pricing to Manage Demand More Effectively
Transport infrastructure is expensive. Using it efficiently through demand management makes economic sense.
The current toll system, as Professor David Levinson has explained, fails to manage demand effectively at a system-wide level. Toll reform is underway, but it's unclear whether the changes will actually improve transport system outcomes.
The NSW Government should pilot converting vehicle registration into a voluntary pay-as-you-go system that rewards people financially for avoiding peak times. Research by Professor David Hensher suggests this could reduce congestion. A trial would provide evidence for broader implementation.
Sydney should also use fares more strategically on trains and buses. When transport planners say a rail line is "at capacity," they typically mean at capacity for a short period, three days per week. Rather than spending billions to accommodate this narrow peak, fares should be used to spread demand more evenly across the day and week.
Finally, switching freight from road to rail has been a policy goal for years without progress. Charging road freight appropriately for the costs it imposes on the system, including road maintenance, congestion, and safety, would make rail more economically competitive and reduce freight truck traffic.
9. Integrate Transport and Land Use Planning
Sydney struggles with this consistently. The current government deserves credit for promoting Transit Oriented Developments, but the initiative needs to become systematic, not project-by-project. Sydney needs a continuous pipeline of TODs, constantly progressing, to support both housing supply and reduced car dependency.
Transport and planning must work as integrated functions, not separate departments pursuing uncoordinated goals. Every major transport investment should optimise land use changes. Every significant development should optimise transport outcomes. This integration needs to become standard practice, not an occasional occurrence.
10. Decide What Role You Want Autonomous Vehicles to Play
Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are coming. The question isn't whether they'll arrive, but what they'll do to Sydney when they do.
The optimistic narrative suggests AVs will reduce congestion, improve safety, and provide better mobility. The risk is that they induce massive additional car travel, bringing the city to gridlock. Both outcomes are possible; which one occurs depends on policy choices.
Sydney needs two tools to steer toward the preferable outcome: a clear transport mode hierarchy that prioritises walking, cycling, and public transport over private vehicles (whether autonomous or not), and road pricing that makes the full costs of driving visible. Without these, AVs could easily make Sydney's transport problems dramatically worse.
Making It Happen
These recommendations share a common thread: they require prioritising long-term transport system performance over short-term political convenience. That's hard. Roads are popular. Free parking for cars is popular. Car priority over buses is popular. Challenging any of this invites political risk.
However, cities that have built world-class transport systems, such as London, Singapore, Copenhagen, and Tokyo, all made politically difficult choices. Sydney aspires to be a world-class global city. That ambition requires a transport system that matches global standards. The question is, can Sydney's leaders make the choices that deliver it?
Conclusion
Sydney stands at a crossroads. The city's transport challenges aren't unique; they're shared by car-dependent cities worldwide. As Sydney approaches 6 million people, the old playbook of building more roads while hoping for different results has run its course.
The ten recommendations outlined above represent a fundamental shift in how Sydney undertakes mobility. They require moving beyond the political comfort zone of ribbon-cutting ceremonies for new roads and motorways and instead embracing the harder work of reshaping Sydney around people, not cars.
The political obstacles are real. Roads remain popular. Free parking feels like a right. And change always faces resistance from those invested in the status quo, whether that's unions concerned about job losses, motorists worried about losing priority, or government agencies comfortable with established practices.
But here's the opportunity: The Premier has shown himself to be an effective communicator. What's needed now is to utilise that skill not just to announce projects, but to educate, challenge assumptions, and build consensus around a different vision.
Sydney aspires to be a global city. Yet no truly world-class city in 2025 is betting its future on car dependency. From London to Singapore to Copenhagen, the greatest cities have recognised that quality of life, economic vitality, equity and environmental sustainability all point in the same direction: towards integrated, multimodal transport systems that give people real choices about how they move.
Can Sydney’s leaders deliver the change required? Time will tell.