The Ten Transport Questions Decision Makers Must Ask to Prevent Multi-Billion Dollar Mistakes.
Key Takeaways
- In transport, we are poor at choosing the right initiatives to progress.
- This problem is well known but persists.
- Part of the reason is that we do not equip decision makers with the right questions to ask.
- The blog contains 10 questions decision makers should ask.
- These include questions around problem priorities, big projects versus several smaller projects, policy instead of infrastructure, considering all modes, evidence, prestige bias and false assumptions.
What next?
Apply the questions to an initiative you are working on.
Introduction
Far too often, when I hear an announcement for a transport project or initiative, I think to myself, I am sure the problem they are tackling could be solved in a smarter way or the proposal is contradictory to the research evidence or in the case of mega projects, how many smaller but highly beneficial projects could be delivered with this money instead.
I am not alone in these thoughts. Many transport leaders are thinking the same thing.
As an industry, transport has a fundamental issue with how we select initiatives to progress. Projects that win funding are often not the most effective at achieving our objectives, rarely the most cost-efficient, and alarmingly frequently, they fail to deliver what they promised. We've developed an unhealthy fixation on getting a Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) over 1, as if crossing this arbitrary threshold automatically makes something the right project to pursue.
The consequences are everywhere: congested roads despite widening projects, underutilised bus services, and failing to invest in more sustainable modes.
I'm certainly not the first to identify these issues. Numerous checklists and frameworks are available to transport leaders attempting to improve initiative selection. For example, the Australian Government has produced a decent guide to transport assessment and planning.
Yet despite these tools, we continue making poor choices. Why?
Part of the answer is that the guides are written for transport strategists and planners, not those who make decisions on transport initiatives - senior leaders in transport agencies and political leaders. So, how can we rectify this?
A key starting point is to make it simple for decision makers to know the right questions to ask. In this blog, I'll share ten questions that should take place; questions that will lead to better outcomes for communities, more efficient use of limited resources, and transport solutions that solve the problems they set out to address..
Asking the Right Questions: A Framework for Transport Decision-Making
Before commencing initiatives, decision makers should pause to consider these ten questions and satisfy themselves that progressing the initiative is the right decision.
1. Is this genuinely one of our highest-priority problems?
Too often, we allow the loudest voices or most compelling presenters to dictate our priorities, leading to reactive rather than strategic decision-making.
Decision makers need to question whether this is one of their priority problems to be tackled, as it will likely provide a valuable step towards achieving their strategic objectives and community vision.
2. Is one mega-project worth sacrificing multiple smaller, high-value interventions?
The allure of transformative mega-projects often blinds us to the cumulative impact of smaller initiatives. A single multi-billion dollar project prevents funding dozens of smaller interventions that collectively might deliver greater community benefit.
Active transport and public realm improvements typically deliver exceptional returns but often get overlooked in favour of headline-grabbing mega-projects.
3. Could policy changes accomplish what we're trying to achieve with infrastructure?
Our professional bias toward building things can prevent consideration of non-infrastructure solutions, such as pricing solutions (like charging for parking or variable fares depending on time of day) to manage demand.
The most powerful interventions typically combine targeted infrastructure with complementary policy measures. For example, Bus Rapid Transport (BRT) projects are most effective when policies are combined with the infrastructure to speed up the service, such as using multiple door entry and pay at the bus stop facilities.
4. Have we genuinely considered all transport modes for solving this problem?
Modal bias, typically favouring motor vehicles and roads, constrains our thinking and limits the most effective solutions.
- Could shifting freight to rail alleviate road congestion?
- Might active transport investments reduce short-trip vehicle demand?
- Would improved public transport serve the corridor more efficiently?
- Is there a water transport option we've overlooked?
5. Is this fundamentally a transport problem?
The best transport solution might be no transport solution. Before investing in mobility, we should consider whether there are better non-transport solutions. For example, bringing amenities closer to where people live and shortening travel distances or providing services remotely, e.g., telehealth.
6. Does this transport challenge warrant attention given competing government priorities?
It is easy for us to try to tackle transport problems wherever we see them. However, transport doesn't exist in a vacuum. Government resources are finite, and transport investments compete with healthcare, education, housing, and other critical needs.
Decision makers need to consider wider government priorities. For example, is it better to use some government land near a station to provide commuter parking, affordable housing, or a medical facility? The right answer depends on the priorities of the government.
7. Are we overlooking solutions that address multiple problems moderately rather than one problem perfectly?
Our organisational structures often prevent us from recognising solutions that deliver benefits across multiple domains, as they may lack a clear institutional champion.
For example, a rail infrastructure improvement that has benefits for both passengers and freight rail that are significant when combined may not be championed by the freight or passenger sections of transport as a high priority.
Transport solutions also impact non-transport objectives. For example, active transport and car use have very different impacts on health and environmental goals.
8. What does the evidence tell us about our proposed approach?
Despite rhetoric about evidence-based decision-making, transport planning remains heavily influenced by intuition, precedent, and political preference.
Consequently, we end up with sub-optimal initiatives such as road projects that will suffer from induced demand, becoming transport priorities.
9. Are we prioritising exciting solutions over effective ones?
Transport planning isn't immune to fashion and prestige bias. This often manifests in mode selection (e.g. light rail vs. bus rapid transit) or fashionable technologies that sound good on a press release.
10. Have we critically examined our problem definition and core assumptions?
Many transport initiatives fail because they're solutions to misdiagnosed problems. These include:
- Is infrastructure truly at capacity, or just at peak periods?
- Are travel time savings the right metric for success as opposed to accessibility?
- Have we accurately forecast future demand, accounting for demographic, technological, and behavioural trends?
- Are we solving for current patterns or future needs?
The most damaging assumptions are often those we don't recognise we're making.
Conclusion: Moving Beyond Business as Usual
The ten questions I've outlined, if properly applied by decision makers, would significantly change the transport initiatives that get progressed, and create more space for innovation, efficiency, and genuinely effective solutions.
The checklist of questions I've proposed isn't exhaustive (please let me know of any Iβve missed). What matters is committing to asking the questions before we commit resources.
Because asking these questions would lead to significant changes, they will face resistance. Entire careers, departments, and funding mechanisms have been built around certain ways of thinking about transport problems. Breaking free of these patterns will not be easy.
But the cost of continuing business as usual is too high. Every dollar spent on an ineffective or suboptimal transport solution is a dollar not available for other public priorities, whether that's healthcare, education, or more effective transport interventions.
As transport leaders, we have a responsibility to the communities we serve to ensure we're not just building things right, but building the right things. That starts with asking better questions when we are making decisions and recommendations.
I invite you to apply these ten questions to a transport initiative you're working on. You might be surprised at how they shift your thinking, and potentially, your results.
What would our transport systems look like if every initiative had to answer these ten questions before proceeding? They would be more sustainable, more affordable, and more effective at meeting the needs they were designed to address.
Isn't that a future worth working toward?