Planning

Why Simply Building More Infrastructure Won't Fix Transport (And What Will)

One of the paradoxes of Australian transport is that, despite having a car-oriented transport system that we are struggling to change, we have some of the best transport academics in the world. This opinion piece by Professor David Hensher focuses on what we need to fix transport in Sydney, but the advice would apply to many locations around the world.

Key Takeaways

• An underlying assumption on the need to invest in more public transport and build more roads is based on the mistaken belief that this will contain congestion.
• To make public transport more attractive, we must make the car less attractive, and focus on ‘increased frequency, connectivity and visibility’.
• A focus only on transport strategies will not work unless they are planned in tandem with land use strategies.
• While investment in new rail facilities is to be encouraged, it must be assessed in the context of other public transport solutions not ideologically chosen.
• We need to find ways to tame the car, the ute, and the truck, and invest in rail \as part of a public transport plan. Professor Hensher makes six recommendations:

1. The re-pricing of the use of vehicles in a way that makes users and state treasuries no worse off. The key feature is the option for people to switch from a fixed annual registration fee to a distance-based charge during peak periods (for a portion of the fee), and ensuring that the total cost does not exceed the full registration fee.
2. Transit-Oriented Development (ToD), including significant investment in bus-based hubs.
3. Staggered Work Hours and Remote Work Incentives as policies to spread peak demand and reduce overall traffic volumes.
4. Smart Traffic Management, especially real-time traffic control systems that adjust signal timings based on traffic flow and also incorporate bus priority requests.
5. Focusing on a system of bus-based corridors that also allow, initially, at least, multi-occupant cars to share the dedicated lane(s) as a politically clever way of appeasing car users.
6. Parking can play a big role as a disincentive to car use if you are unable to park at your destination.

Comment

I recently put my top 10 list for transport improvements on LinkedIn. Four of David's six were in my list.

The really clever thing about Professor Hensher's piece is the re-pricing recommendation. It offers a politically savvy way to reduce congestion quickly by providing people with the option to switch systems. It does not require a brave politician, just one who is interested in reform to create a better transport system.

What next?

Which of these recommendations should be high up on your list of policies to be taken forward to create a better transport system?

Road User Charging

From Fuel Duty to Road Duty: Navigating the Transition

As we switch from Internal Combustion Engines (ICEs) to Electric Vehicles (EVs), with the resulting loss of fuel/gas taxes, governments are increasingly having to rethink motoring taxes. The UK recently announced its intention to move to a distance-based charge for EVs, and this paper, produced before the announcement, looked at the options for a 'road duty' in the UK.

Key Takeaways

• Governments face a policy trade-off: incentivising the uptake of EVs to accelerate decarbonisation risks undermining long-term fiscal sustainability, and the principal transport should reflect its associated social costs.
• Setting Road Duty rates anywhere near marginal external cost estimates would entail a steep rise in the tax burden on drivers, to nearly 44p per mile, compared with the approximately 7p/mile of Fuel Duty today.
• Broad changes to motoring taxation will inevitably create short-term winners and losers. This reinforces the need for gradual implementation.
• A road duty is one of the few instances in which raising taxes would both increase government revenue and improve economic efficiency.
• The simplest option would be a flat per-mile Road Duty, while at the opposite end, it could vary according to time, place and vehicle.
• Restricting Road Duty to a flat rate would involve relinquishing the bulk of the gains in economic efficiency.
• A Road Duty that varied by location would charge urban miles more heavily than rural miles.
• Those who have no choice but to drive through urban areas in times of high congestion would pay more but benefit most from reduced travel times.
• There are significant practical challenges with implementing a dynamic variable rate, such as GPS tracking, which could raise privacy concerns.
• Targeted interventions, such as exemptions or free mileage allowances, could be granted to those with mobility difficulties or residents with limited alternative modes of transport.
• A potential alternative to ease the introduction of a Road Duty is to link it to increased cash benefits.
• Three main policy options:

1. Continue taxing ICE vehicles via Fuel Duty while exempting them from any new Road Duty
2. Apply Road Duty to all vehicles while retaining Fuel Duty for ICE vehicles
3. Replace Fuel Duty entirely with differentiated Road Duty rates based on vehicle CO2 emissions.

• The key question is how large a difference in running costs should exist between EVs and ICE vehicles during the transition to EVs.
• Levying no taxes on EVs would accelerate the transition to EVs, but at the cost of eliminating all incentives for EV owners to economise on driving.

Comment

This paper does a good job of discussing the options available. Personally, I think this is one of those policy areas where you are not going to get to the final outcome you want in one go; it will have to be undertaken in incremental steps. The key will be avoiding taking steps that result in a dead end and a suboptimal outcome.

What Next?

Do you have a plan for tackling the problem of moving away from fuel duty and taxing EVs appropriately?

Parking

How AI is Transforming Parking (For Better or Worse)

Long-time readers will know that I am a big believer in the power of parking to shape our transport systems, for better or worse. Therefore, I was interested to come across this relatively brief article on how AI is impacting parking.

Key Takeaways

• Artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping the parking industry.
• From reactive to predictive parking. AI systems can now tell them where spaces will be open. Predictive algorithms can guide drivers to likely available spaces.
• Dynamic pricing and demand management. Machine learning models evaluate demand patterns, time of day, local events, and even weather to adjust rates automatically.
• Smarter vision systems. With AI-powered video analytics, a single camera can detect occupancy, identify vehicle types, track dwell time, and spot safety incidents.
• Integration with the mobility ecosystem. Data from parking can inform mobility strategies, feeding into dashboards that coordinate how people and goods move.
• Predictive maintenance and system reliability. Instead of waiting for a sensor or sign to fail, predictive maintenance models identify early warning signs.
• A more personalised parking experience. Apps can learn driver habits and preferences, offering suggestions such as the closest parking spot to a destination.
• Data-driven design and planning. By aggregating and analysing parking data, cities can identify underused assets, plan expansions, or repurpose space for mixed use.
• Security, fraud, and anomaly detection. Advanced analytics can flag abnormal or undesirable behaviours.

Comment

A lot of this sounds very helpful. However, I am also cautious that if not used wisely, some of these uses can make parking easier, and we know that when that happens, more people drive, worsening congestion.

What Next?

Do you have a parking policy, and does it take into account the latest technological innovations, including AI?

Quick Adventures in Transport Wonderland

Here is what else I came across this week:

• ​Self-driving cars will transform urban economies​
• ​Analysing the effects of perceived travel options and attitudes on multimodality​
• ​Traffic speed v Road capacity​

Blog

The Long Game: Mastering Transport Corridor Protection

This week, in my blog, I discussed what was needed to deliver good transport corridor protection.

Podcast

Congestion

This week on the Transport Leaders podcast, we discussed all things congestion, including what it is and the options to tackle it.

You can watch it here or listen here.