Policy

Why Your City's $10 Billion Road Budget Won't Fix Traffic (But a $500 E-Bike Might)

The E-Bike City (EBC) Project is an initiative to explore how the development of electric micro-mobility vehicles, such as e-bikes, can be leveraged to transform a city (in this case, Zurich) and establish a sustainable transport system. It argues that current transport policies are incremental and insufficient to meet net-zero goals.

Key Takeaways

• Aims to begin a new discussion about alternative future directions for transport policy beyond mere optimisation and technical incrementalism.
• The EBC focuses on allocating 50% for active modes while:

a) maintaining the existing public transport infrastructure

b) maintaining existing sidewalks for pedestrians

c) maintaining motorised vehicle access to each street address for deliveries, emergency vehicles, tradespeople, etc., and to any private parking on the property.

d) providing access to shared vehicle hubs within 200 meters (or another designated distance) of every residence.

• E-bikes and other micro-mobility vehicles have a larger potential appeal compared to traditional bicycles as they allow longer trips and reduce the impact of hills.
• Cars are discouraged through a loss of parking and road space.
• The EBC note that ongoing technical progress in electric vehicles and autonomous vehicles will likely decrease the cost of driving, increasing demand.
• The project does not integrate suburbia into its work.
• The EBC proposes a 'conscious' supply of public and private parking spaces to manage both the demand for driving and car ownership rates.
• It proposes starting by merely repainting existing road surfaces, at first, perhaps, as a set of temporary pilots.

Comment

The EBC proposes a radical change to transport policies, which is significantly more far-reaching than those of 'poster child' cities that have recently seen significant increases in cycling, such as Paris. For such a radical change to be possible, it must be able to garner and sustain significant support and survive changes in government. On this, the EBC lacks a credible explanation. However, we have not generally given enough thought to how electric-powered micromobility should influence our transport policies, and so this is a welcome thought experiment.

What next?

Consider how electric-powered micromobility should change our transport thinking.

Planning

How to boost bus patronage without breaking the budget

Bus network redesigns can be a great way of enhancing services. However, they also come with risks. This article provides a good overview of the current state of bus network redesigns in the United States.

Key Takeaways

• Network redesigns might include:
  • changes to route timetables and bus arrival frequencies,
  • the consolidation of existing bus stops or the placement of new stops,
  • modifications to routes, including their distances, termini, or paths taken,
  • or the combination, elimination, or addition of entirely new routes.
• They typically require at least three years from announcement to implementation.
• They necessitate compromise, with new routing plans inevitably serving some neighbourhoods and destinations better than others.
• In many regions, network redesigns are overdue. Many U.S. agencies have not comprehensively reevaluated their networks in decades.
• Houston's Metro network redesign is a standout example of success and has inspired other transit agencies.
• Typical objectives for network redesigns include:
  • Increase midday service on weekdays
  • Provide better route coverage
  • Simplify routes
  • Increase weekend, morning, and evening service
  • Streamline network,
  • Create better transit connections
  • Add connections to new destinations
• Providers must determine, in conversation with constituents, which objectives deserve priority.
• Many of the trade-offs agencies face can be described along one axis: improving system ridership versus improving system coverage.
• Systems designed for ridership maximisation focus service along high-demand corridors.
• Systems designed for coverage maximisation spread routes uniformly across the service region. Regardless of their location, riders can reach a stop nearby.
• The seven most common phases of modern redesigns are listed below:
  1. Conduct current network market and performance assessments.
  2. Gather public comment on the current network
  3. Create a draft network plan.
  4. Gather public comment on draft plan.
  5. Create final plan.
  6. Acquire agency approval.
  7. Implement new network in phases.

Comment

Whether you need to undertake a network redesign is a matter of context. In many jurisdictions, incremental improvements may be more suitable.

What next?

When was the last time you did a comprehensive review of your bus network? Are there significant benefits you could gain from a network redesign? Could you combine it with other measures such as bus prioritisation?

Leadership

Six Cognitive Biases That Shape Our Transport Decisions

Transport professionals make countless decisions daily, from route planning and infrastructure investments to policy development and project management. While we pride ourselves on data-driven decision-making, our choices are inevitably influenced by cognitive biases that operate beneath our conscious awareness. Understanding these mental shortcuts can help us make more objective, effective decisions.

1. Status Quo Bias: The Comfort of "How We've Always Done It"

Status quo bias leads us to prefer existing conditions over change, even when alternatives might be superior.

In transport, this manifests when agencies keep expanding roads, resist adopting new technologies, or continue funding underperforming routes simply because "that's how it's always been done." This bias can prevent innovation and keep systems operating below optimal efficiency.

2. Confirmation Bias: Seeing What We Want to See

Confirmation bias drives us to seek information that supports our existing beliefs while ignoring contradictory evidence.

Transport professionals might cherry-pick data that supports a preferred project while downplaying studies that suggest alternatives. This selective attention can lead to poorly justified investments and missed opportunities for better solutions.

3. Halo and Horn Effects: When First Impressions Stick

The halo effect occurs when one positive trait creates an overall favourable impression, while the horn effect does the opposite with negative traits.

In transport, one problematic experience with a technology or approach might unfairly taint future evaluations.

4. Sunk Cost Bias: When Past Investment Drives Future Decisions

Sunk cost bias compels us to continue projects because of previous investments, even when stopping would be more rational.

In transport, this can mean pouring additional funds into failing infrastructure projects, continuing ineffective programs, or refusing to pivot from outdated technologies because of past expenditures.

5. Recency Effect: When Recent Events Overshadow Long-term Trends

The recency effect causes us to overweight recent information while undervaluing long-term patterns.

Transport professionals might make decisions on project investments based on recent events, rather than considering comprehensive historical trends. This can lead to reactive rather than strategic planning.

6. Groupthink Bias: When Consensus Trumps Critical Analysis

Groupthink occurs when teams prioritise harmony and agreement over rigorous evaluation of alternatives.

In transport planning, this might manifest as committees quickly converging on popular solutions without thoroughly examining potential drawbacks or considering diverse perspectives from different stakeholders.

What next?

Recognising these biases doesn't eliminate them; they're hardwired into human thinking. However, awareness enables us to implement decision-making processes that take these tendencies into account. Consider incorporating devil's advocate roles in planning meetings, systematically seeking contradictory evidence, establishing clear criteria for project continuation decisions, and ensuring diverse perspectives are genuinely heard and considered.

The goal isn't perfect objectivity; it's better decisions that serve our communities more effectively.

Quick Adventures in Transport Wonderland

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Interesting articles, podcasts and papers that sent me down the transport rabbit hole this week:

• ​Are for-profit passenger railways the way forward? This article examines the private Brightline in the United States.
• ​A new fixed-route shared passenger service from Uber. It sounds a lot like a bus.
• ​How could autonomous vehicles change cities? At some point soon, I am going to do a deep dive on this topic. In the meantime, here is some commentary from the Brookings Institution.

Blog

Smart Mobility Payments: Re-thinking How We Price Transport

This week, I had a guest blog from transport payment systems expert David Lunt, looking at how demand-based pricing, loyalty programs, and seamless payment systems can unlock better journeys and transform public transport.

Innovation

Are Hydrogen-Powered Commercial Vehicles The Way Forward?

Some people believe we are over-reliant on batteries for decarbonising transport and need to explore alternatives. Japan is backing hydrogen-powered commercial vehicles.​

Tool

How Can We Provide Better Transport Policy Advice?

I am a big believer in the need to improve our policy advice to transport decision makers to deliver better outcomes. However, many theoretical policy advice models do not reflect the reality of how policy is actually made. This '5D' policy advice model seeks to change that.